Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The settlement hinges on the single highest temperature reading at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport on 25 May 2026, measured in Celsius and resolved via Wunderground's historical records. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to the YES outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity across the available ranges.

Shenzhen's May climate sits at the threshold between spring and early summer, with historical highs typically ranging from 28°C to 32°C during this period. The 0% implied probability across all outcomes signals either a data-loading issue or that traders have not yet engaged with this market. May 25th falls within Shenzhen's pre-monsoon window, when afternoon temperatures routinely exceed 30°C but rarely breach 35°C except during anomalous heat events. Comparable May days at Bao'an show consistent clustering around 29–31°C, with outliers driven by high-pressure systems or urban heat effects.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather pattern forecasts released in early May 2026, particularly any alerts from China's meteorological authority regarding heat waves or unusual pressure systems affecting the Pearl River Delta. The resolution depends entirely on Wunderground's historical data capture for that specific station; any gaps in their recording would create ambiguity. Given the current zero probability, the market likely awaits initial trader participation to establish realistic ranges, making early positioning potentially valuable if you hold conviction on whether May 25th will fall within typical or anomalous temperature territory for that date.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.