Highest temperature in Taipei on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

A typhoon is currently battering Taipei, with heavy rain and cloud cover suppressing any chance of extreme heat on 11 July 2026. Current forecasts from AccuWeather and Yr confirm heavy rain throughout the day, with maximum temperatures capped near 29°C, while the Central Weather Administration reports 93% humidity and 12mm of rain in the hour alone[4][7][9]. This active weather system directly explains the crowd-implied probability of 0% for any outcome requiring significantly higher temperatures, as the atmospheric conditions are fundamentally incompatible with the heatwaves typical of mid-summer in the region.

Historically, July is Taipei’s hottest month, with average highs at Taipei Songshan Airport reaching 92°F (33.3°C), and recent years have seen peaks soaring to 38.3°C in May[2][6]. However, the market’s consensus heavily favours the 28–30°C range, assigning 34% probability to 29°C and 25% to 30°C, while outcomes above 32°C hold only 17.6% combined weight[1]. The 0% probability for higher ranges reflects the immediate contrarian reality: traders are pricing in the typhoon’s cooling effect rather than the seasonal baseline, making the current low-temperature outcomes the clear favourite against the historical underdog of extreme heat.

Traders should monitor the typhoon’s trajectory and intensity updates from the Central Weather Administration, as any sudden weakening could alter the settlement temperature, though the 100% rain probability for today suggests the cooling effect will persist through the settlement window[4][7]. With the settlement ending at 12:00 UTC on 11 July, the immediate focus remains on the Wunderground historical record for RCSS, where the current forecast of a 29°C maximum aligns with the market’s leading outcome[1][4]. The value spot lies in the consensus favouring 29°C, as the typhoon makes higher temperatures virtually impossible, rendering any contrarian bet on 32°C+ a statistical outlier with negligible support.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.