Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s afternoon heat on 10 August 2026 is the underlying event, and the market’s **0% YES** crowd price leaves the forecast distribution heavily skewed to the low side. On the numbers available, that looks like an over-discounted favourite: Tokyo’s August climatology is hot, with average highs around 29–31°C, and recent August 10 observations have often cleared the mid-30s Celsius in city data, even if the specific station used here is Haneda Airport rather than central Tokyo.[1][3][4][12][15]

Historically, the handicapper’s note is that **high-temperature markets in Tokyo can resolve at the upper end of summer ranges more often than a zero-implied market suggests**, especially when the city is under a persistent warm ridge. Comparable August 10 data show recent maxima of 34–37°C in Tokyo-area historical calendars, while JMA monthly climate tables place August among the hottest months of the year.[3][4][15] That said, Haneda can print a little differently from inner-city stations because of coastal influence, so the value case is usually not in chasing the absolute top band unless the day begins with already-elevated morning readings and weak onshore relief.[5][10]

The main catalysts are the day’s actual observed readings on Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table, since that is the settlement source and it overrides any summary “Day High & Low” display.[5] Traders should watch the intraday temperature trajectory, sea-breeze strength, and any rain or cloud cover that caps the afternoon peak; today’s Tokyo history pages already show warm early-day readings in the mid-80s °F, which is consistent with a live market leaning towards a warmer finish than the crowd expects.[2][5] The contrarian angle is that if cloud/rain suppresses the afternoon maximum at Haneda, the current 0% favourite becomes a genuine underdog, but absent a cooling trigger the consensus appears too bearish on heat.[2][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.