Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

The crowd is pricing zero probability that Tokyo's highest temperature on 14 July 2026 will fall into whichever range this market settles against. This reflects either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or genuine uncertainty about which temperature band the market's resolution criteria will ultimately capture. The settlement mechanism hinges on Wunderground's historical data for Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, the primary weather observation point for the metropolitan area, making the resolution source both transparent and verifiable.

Tokyo's July temperatures are remarkably consistent year-on-year. Over the past two decades, mid-July highs at Haneda have clustered between 32–35°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 37°C even during heatwave years. The 2010 heatwave pushed readings to 39.5°C, but such outliers remain statistical rarities. The 0% implied probability suggests traders either expect a temperature outcome so far outside historical norms that no range currently offered seems plausible, or the market's range definitions have created a scenario where one option captures virtually all probability mass whilst others appear redundant.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts as July 2026 approaches, particularly any alerts for unusual atmospheric patterns or heat domes affecting East Asia. El Niño or La Niña conditions in the preceding months could shift seasonal expectations, though their influence on single-day extremes remains modest. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 14 July, meaning traders have only the morning's data available before final resolution, compressing the information window considerably.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.