Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The settlement hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on 28 July 2026, measured in Celsius and resolved via Weather Underground's historical data. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a particular temperature band or genuine uncertainty about which range will prevail.

Tokyo's late July climate sits firmly within the summer monsoon season, when daily highs routinely exceed 30°C. Historical records from Haneda show that temperatures in the 33–35°C range occur frequently during this period, whilst readings above 36°C are less common but not exceptional. The 2023 summer saw multiple days exceed 35°C across the Kanto region, and 2022 recorded a peak of 34.5°C on 28 July itself. These precedents suggest the market should anchor expectations around the mid-30s rather than extreme heat or anomalous coolness.

The Japan Meteorological Agency's seasonal forecasts, typically released in early July, will shape trader positioning in the weeks before settlement. Any official guidance pointing towards a particularly warm or cool pattern could shift consensus significantly. Additionally, the timing of the East Asian summer monsoon's progression—whether it delivers typical convective activity or stalls—remains a key variable. Traders should monitor late-June weather models and any advisory updates from JMA regarding heat wave risk, as these often precede actual temperature outcomes by several weeks.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 28? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.