Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on whether Tokyo Haneda Airport records a temperature exceeding 27°C on 6 July 2026, a threshold the market currently prices at a 0% chance of being met. Historical data frames this as an underdog scenario; early July in Tokyo typically swings between mid-twenties on cloudy days and well above 30°C during heat domes, yet the consensus leans heavily toward the lower range due to persistent humidity and frequent rain clouds that cap maximums [5][8]. Recent records show Japan hitting 41.2°C in Tamba city, but Haneda’s coastal location often moderates extremes, with July highs averaging 87°F (30.6°C) and frequently dipping into the low 30s when rain intervenes [6][7].

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s heat dome forecasts and any scheduled typhoon approaches, as these are the primary catalysts that could push temperatures into the 27°C+ value spot. A recent report noted that over 120 people died from heatstroke in Tokyo last July due to record-high averages, suggesting that while extreme heat is possible, the market’s 0% implied probability may be overly contrarian if a heat dome materialises [9]. The value likely sits in the 27–30°C range if a clear, dry day coincides with a heat dome, whereas the consensus remains anchored to the 24–26°C band where rain and clouds dominate [2][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.