Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 27 July 2026, Warsaw's highest temperature will be recorded at Chopin Airport Station and sorted into a range bracket. The crowd currently implies 0% probability across all temperature bands, suggesting either incomplete market seeding or genuine uncertainty about which specific range will capture the day's peak.

Warsaw's July climate sits firmly in warm continental territory, with historical highs typically between 24–28°C, though extremes occasionally breach 30°C. The city recorded 32.2°C on 29 July 2021 during a European heatwave, and 31.5°C on 18 July 2022. Over the past decade, late-July temperatures have clustered in the mid-to-high 20s under normal conditions, with outlier heat events separated by years. This distribution suggests the most probable outcome falls in the 25–28°C band, yet the flat probability curve indicates traders have not yet anchored to seasonal norms or recent anomalies.

The settlement window closes at midday on 27 July, meaning the market resolves before the typical daily maximum occurs in early evening. This timing constraint matters: Wunderground's historical records capture the full calendar day, but traders betting now must account for whether morning and afternoon readings alone will represent the day's true peak. European summer weather patterns for 2026 remain unknowable at this distance, though medium-range forecasting becomes viable roughly two weeks before the date. Any significant Atlantic blocking pattern or heat dome tracking toward Central Europe would shift expectations sharply upward; conversely, cloud cover and precipitation would depress the range. Monitoring late July 2026 seasonal forecasts from national meteorological services will provide the clearest signal.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.