Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing the highest temperature at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport on 19 July 2026 at 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either a technical issue with the market structure or extreme confidence that no single range will materialise. Wuhan's July climate is characterised by intense summer heat; historical data shows daily highs routinely exceed 35°C during mid-July, with peaks frequently reaching 38–40°C. The 0% crowd probability across all outcomes is unusual and warrants scrutiny—either the market lacks liquidity or traders are withholding positions ahead of the settlement window closing on 19 July at midday UTC.

Wuhan's location in the Yangtze River valley creates a heat-trapping effect that intensifies summer temperatures. Over the past decade, mid-July highs have consistently fallen between 35–39°C, with occasional excursions to 40°C or above during particularly severe heatwaves. The city ranks among China's hottest urban centres during summer months. A trader evaluating this market should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early July 2026, which typically provide reliable 10–14 day outlooks for regional temperature patterns. Any significant atmospheric circulation anomalies—such as persistent high-pressure systems or monsoon disruptions—could shift outcomes materially. The settlement source, Wunderground's historical data from Tianhe Airport, is reliable and widely used for Chinese weather resolution.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 19? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.