Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the **lowest temperature recorded in Hong Kong on 5 August 2026**, using the Hong Kong Observatory’s final “Absolute Daily Min” reading in Celsius. With the market currently implying **0% for YES**, the crowd is effectively pricing the extreme-low end of the distribution as a non-event, so the consensus sits firmly with the warmer buckets rather than a standout cool reading.

That framing fits the historical baseline. Hong Kong’s August normals for 5 August put the daily minimum around **26.2°C**, while the Observatory’s own past August summaries show minima on 5 August of **24.0°C in 2025** and **24.9°C in 2020** when heavy rain helped drag temperatures down. In handicapper terms, the favourite is the **26–27°C** cluster, with the market’s pricing in the 2026 book already leaning there rather than towards the cooler underdog bands; the value, if any, is usually in whether a rain-cooled or cloud-locked day can punch through to **24–25°C** rather than in the near-impossible sub-24°C tail.

Traders should watch the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily weather products and any weather warnings in the run-up to 5 August, because rain, thunderstorms, or a tropical system can materially suppress the overnight and early-morning minimum. The resolution source is the Observatory’s climatological database, and the market cannot settle until the daily extract is published, so there is an information lag between the day itself and final resolution. The recent August pattern matters too: the Observatory’s 2025 write-up links a record-rain day with a notably cooler minimum, which is the main contrarian angle if early forecasts point to persistent showers or an unsettled monsoon setup.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.