Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s morning low on 8 August is the key number here, with the market currently implying **0% YES** and treating an outcome in the targeted range as essentially a long shot. The historical framing favours the underdog: Hong Kong’s August climate is normally hot and humid, and the Hong Kong Observatory’s August 8 normals show a mean minimum of **26.9°C** and mean temperature of **29.0°C**, which anchors consensus around a warm overnight floor rather than an unusually cool reading.[1]

For traders, the useful comparison is that even the broader August distribution is tight: third-party climate summaries put typical August lows around the mid-to-high 20s Celsius, and one weather archive cites an August record low of **19.2°C**, underlining that materially cooler prints are possible but rare.[3][17] That leaves the favourite as the warmer middle bands, with value more likely to sit in contrarian colder ranges only if a rainband, strong easterly flow or post-storm cloud cover suppresses the overnight minimum; absent that, the consensus should stay close to normal tropical-season levels.[3][4]

Catalyst-wise, the only binding trigger is the Hong Kong Observatory’s finalized **Daily Extract** for 8 August, because the market cannot resolve until the official **Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)** is published.[6] The 3 a.m. Observatory reading already showed **29°C** in Hong Kong, with most stations between **27°C and 30°C**, which is consistent with a sticky night and weak immediate support for an extreme cool downside.[14] The main dependency is therefore not a scheduled announcement but the final overnight minimum that appears once the day’s data is locked in.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.