Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the lowest temperature on 13 July 2026, measured to one decimal place in Celsius. This metric captures the daily minimum rather than average conditions, making it sensitive to overnight cooling patterns during Hong Kong's peak summer season. The crowd has assigned zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a particular range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful pricing.

Hong Kong's July temperatures rarely dip below 24°C at their daily minimum; the 30-year climate normal for the month sits around 25.5°C. Historical data from the Observatory shows that overnight lows during mid-July typically range between 24°C and 27°C, with readings below 23°C occurring in fewer than 5% of cases. Tropical systems and monsoon patterns occasionally suppress overnight temperatures, but sustained cool spells are uncommon during this period. The current zero-probability reading suggests the market may be anchored to typical July behaviour rather than accounting for tail-risk scenarios involving unusual weather systems.

Traders should monitor the South China Sea typhoon forecast window and any tropical depression tracking towards southern China in early July 2026. The Hong Kong Observatory publishes extended outlooks roughly two weeks ahead, which would provide the first concrete signals of anomalous weather patterns. Settlement depends entirely on the Observatory's official daily extract publication, which typically occurs within days of the observation date. Any significant deviation from the 24–27°C band would require demonstrable meteorological disruption—monsoon shifts, upper-level troughs, or organised low-pressure systems—rather than typical summer variability.

Methodology

This page reviews Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.