Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's lowest temperature on 19 July 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and settled against historical data from Wunderground. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a particular temperature band or genuine uncertainty about which range will resolve.

July in Shanghai sits at the height of summer, with average daily lows around 25–26°C and frequent peaks above 35°C. Historical records show that July 19 has seen lows ranging from 23°C to 28°C over the past two decades, with most years clustering between 24–27°C. The 0% implied probability across all ranges indicates the market has not yet attracted substantive trading activity or consensus positioning. This creates a handicapper's opportunity: whichever temperature band emerges as most likely—typically the 25–27°C range based on seasonal norms—currently carries no reflected odds.

Traders should monitor the East Asian monsoon patterns and any tropical systems developing in the Western Pacific during early July 2026, as these directly influence Shanghai's weather volatility. The China Meteorological Administration typically issues 10-day forecasts by mid-July that would inform final positioning. Settlement depends entirely on Wunderground's historical record for that specific station, making data source reliability the only dependency beyond meteorological conditions themselves.

Methodology

We track Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 19? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.