In this guide
With the 2028 US presidential election still more than two years away, prediction markets have already begun establishing pricing across the Republican succession field and Democratic primary race, with substantial trading volume already evident. Those who spot mispriced candidates early — before the candidate pool consolidates — stand to capture outsized returns.
Republican 2028 Presidential Market
Trump's constitutional ineligibility for a third term has opened the Republican field considerably:
- J.D. Vance: ~25-30% — Vice-presidential incumbency edge, Trump-backed
- Ron DeSantis: ~15-20% — Florida governor's track record, recovery from 2024 primary setback
- Nikki Haley: ~12-15% — Centrist coalition, international relations expertise
- Glenn Youngkin: ~7-10% — Two-term Virginia executive, entrepreneurial credentials
- Josh Hawley: ~5-8% — Pro-worker messaging, base appeal
- Unknown candidate: ~15-20% — Sufficient room in the field for surprise contenders
Democratic 2028 Presidential Market
- Kamala Harris: ~20-25% — Leading contender, party establishment backing
- Pete Buttigieg: ~12-15% — Cabinet-level prominence, media presence
- Gavin Newsom: ~10-13% — West Coast executive, national recognition
- Josh Shapiro: ~8-12% — Swing-state governor from Pennsylvania
- Unknown candidate: ~25-30% — Timeline permits emergence of fresh faces
2028 General Election Probabilities
- Republican wins presidency 2028: ~48-52% (near parity at this stage)
- Democrat wins presidency 2028: ~48-52%
Why Trade 2028 Markets Now
Engaging with early 2028 political markets delivers several advantages:
- Greater volatility (heightened ambiguity translates to amplified profit potential for prescient positioning)
- Extended holding periods as new data surfaces and shifts valuations
- Chance to accumulate positions in candidates before catalysts drive up costs
Drawback: nascent markets respond sharply to surprising announcements and candidate decisions to enter or withdraw.
FAQ
- Can a sitting VP (Vance) win the Republican nomination?
- Historical precedent shows sitting VPs have mounted successful nomination bids but face no guarantee. George H.W. Bush prevailed in 1988 following Reagan; Al Gore fell short in 2000. Prediction markets currently rank Vance as the leading contender, though far from a lock.
- When do 2028 nomination markets resolve?
- Both Republican and Democratic nomination markets settle following each party's summer convention — ordinarily in July or August 2028.
- Are there markets for specific primary states?
- Markets covering the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary typically launch between six and twelve months prior to voting — consult PolyGram's political markets hub for current availability.