"Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Market context

Young Washington, Angel Studios’ biopic of a young George Washington, is set to open domestically this Fourth of July weekend, with Friday previews already estimating a $7.60 million gross from 2,700 locations[2]. The market currently implies a 0% YES probability that the film will hit any meaningful upper bracket, reflecting deep scepticism about its ability to compete against the blockbuster Minions & Monsters, which is tracking for a $95 million five-day opening[4]. While consensus leans heavily toward the underdog Minions dominating the weekend, value may sit contrarian in the higher end of Young Washington’s projected $23 million+ range, especially if patriotic sentiment and the 250th birthday narrative drive repeat attendance[4][6].

Historically, July 4 releases have shown volatile trajectories: Supergirl collapsed 76% in its second weekend, losing to a George Washington film, underscoring how opening momentum can become a verdict quickly[1]. Yet Young Washington’s Friday preview performance, though modest, is not an outlier for a mid-budget historical drama; comparable cases suggest that if the film holds its Friday numbers through Saturday and Sunday, it could exceed the $7.6 million single-day estimate and approach the $23 million forecast[2][4]. The key catalysts traders must watch are Saturday and Sunday final figures, which will replace studio estimates and determine the official 3-day total[2]. A recent box office forecast confirms Minions & Monsters is expected to dominate, but Young Washington’s patriotic timing could provide a contrarian lift if audience turnout exceeds initial projections[4][7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track "Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.