How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is effectively betting on whether there will be at least one **M6.5+ earthquake** worldwide in the seven-day window, and the crowd is treating that as a near-certainty at **95% YES**. On a handicapper’s read, that makes **YES** the favourite and leaves the best contrarian angle on the *number* rather than the existence of a qualifying quake: the key question is whether this is a clean one-off, or whether the week produces a cluster that pushes the total above the minimum.

Historically, that 95% price is not outlandish. The USGS maintains a live worldwide M6+ catalogue, and significant-earthquake pages show that large events recur regularly rather than being rare one-offs[1][7]. Recent 2026 activity has already included multiple major shocks, including the June Mindanao event that was ultimately recorded at M7.8 and generated thousands of aftershocks, including two M6.5 events[12]. That kind of background argues that a single M6.5 during any given week is the consensus outcome, while the value on the underdog sits mainly in the small chance that the window passes without one.

What to watch is the real-time USGS event feed and any late catalogue updates, because the market resolves on the official search record and a substantial quake can appear after initial reporting[8]. Recent daily trackers have shown quiet stretches with no M6+ events, alongside periodic surges elsewhere, which is exactly the pattern that makes the tail risk matter for the final count[5][11]. Traders watching for value should focus on whether the week remains globally calm or whether a new Pacific or other plate-boundary event forces the scoreline above one, where the favourite remains intact but the underdog loses its last credible path.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

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Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

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