Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Aurora face Team Liquid in a best-of-one group stage match at the BLAST Slam, scheduled for 28 May at 6:20 AM ET. The crowd has priced Aurora's victory at 10%, implying Liquid as heavy favourites at roughly 90%. This is a single-map elimination contest where momentum, draft execution, and early game coordination determine the outcome within a compressed timeframe.

Team Liquid's standing in professional Dota 2 provides the foundation for the current odds. The organisation has maintained a roster capable of competing at tier-one events, with established players and coaching infrastructure. Aurora, by contrast, operates with less consistent international exposure and smaller prize pool accumulation across recent seasons. Historical group stage matchups between established squads and emerging challengers typically see the favourites convert at rates between 75–85%, which aligns reasonably with the current 90% implied probability for Liquid. However, single-map formats introduce volatility; a favourable draft matchup or early rotational advantage can swing a BO1 decisively, and Aurora's underdog status means any upset carries substantial odds value.

The settlement window closes at 16:10 UTC on 28 May, giving traders roughly ten hours post-match to monitor official results. Cancellation or delays beyond seven days trigger a 50-50 resolution, though BLAST events typically maintain strict scheduling. Key variables include roster confirmation (any last-minute substitutions would shift the matchup), patch timing relative to the event, and whether either team has published recent scrim results or public practice footage. Traders should verify team announcements through official BLAST channels and team social media in the 48 hours before the match.

Methodology

We track Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win 2026 is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.