Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Set 3 Winner | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 29% |
| US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Match O/U 36.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Game Spread +/-8.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Match O/U 38.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Match O/U 40.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to us open atp: daniil medvedev vs hugo gaston. This market refers to the tennis match between Daniil Medvedev and Hugo Gaston in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston on Who Will Win 2026
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