Highest temperature in Beijing on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The relevant event is the day’s **highest temperature at Beijing Capital International Airport** on 3 August 2026, and the market’s **0% YES** implies the crowd is treating the current outcome band as effectively dead money. On the available forecasts, that looks like a strong favourite/underdog split in weather terms: Beijing is expected to be hot, but the consensus sits more in the low-30s Celsius than in extreme-heat territory, which leaves value on the upside if the airport stays ahead of showers and cloud.

Historically, early August in Beijing usually delivers **highs around 30–31°C**, with humidity and rainfall often acting as the brake rather than a heatwave driver. Forecast services currently point to a broadly similar setup: AccuWeather shows August highs ranging from **79°F to 90°F** with an average high of **85°F**[1], while travel and climate guides put Beijing’s August daytime highs around **30–31°C** and note that the month remains hot and rainy[15][17][18]. A separate forecast bulletin for Beijing lists **32°C** with thunderstorms[3], and one market-facing model summary clusters trader sentiment around **33–35°C** because a brief clearing can lift the peak even when showers are in the area[6]. That makes the underdog case for a notably hotter print plausible, but still not the baseline.

The main catalysts are timing and convective weather: if thunderstorms arrive early, the day’s maximum can be capped well below the forecast high; if rain holds off until later, a short-lived spike can push the airport reading higher. The settlement source is the **Wunderground daily history** page for Beijing Capital International Airport, so traders should watch the station’s observed peak rather than city-wide forecasts, which can differ materially from airport conditions[6]. In practical terms, the consensus appears to sit near the low 30s Celsius, while the value spot is any scenario that preserves sunshine into the warmest part of the afternoon and lets the airport briefly run hotter than the broader city forecast[3][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on August 3? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

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Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.