Highest temperature in Beijing on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 5 July 2026, the Beijing Capital International Airport Station will record its peak temperature for the day, a real-world event that determines whether the market settles above or below the 30°C threshold. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests the consensus believes the temperature will fall short, yet historical data paints a different picture. Beijing’s July 5 readings have skewed warmer than 30°C in most years, with the hottest day on record hitting 42.1°C on 5 July 2010[5]. Average daily highs in July typically sit around 31°C (88°F), rarely dipping below 26°C (78°F)[2], and in 2023 the month peaked at 40°C[3]. This historical warmth frames the 0% probability as a potential underdog spot, where value may lie for contrarian traders betting on the heat.

The primary catalyst for this market is the regional weather pattern, specifically the intensity of the summer heatwave and humidity levels, which have driven recent temperature extremes across China. Reuters reported that China experienced its hottest month in recent history in July 2024, with average temperatures eclipsing previous records[4]. Traders should monitor the daily weather forecasts from Wunderground for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, as the resolution source is explicitly tied to this data[7]. With July being the hottest month in Beijing, daytime temperatures typically range from 25°C to 33°C, with a maximum of 38°C recorded in recent years[8]. The consensus is heavily positioned against the 30°C threshold, but the historical tendency for July 5 to exceed this mark suggests the value spot is on the favourite side of the heat.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.