Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing is facing a classic late-summer heat test, with the market implying **0% YES** even though August is normally one of the city’s hottest months and daily highs around **34°C** are common on climate guides. In handicapper terms, that makes the favourite the *non-YES* side, with the crowd effectively pricing an outcome below the relevant temperature band; the value question is whether the airport station can still print an afternoon spike high enough to upset that consensus. Historical August norms are warm enough that a single clear, humid day can easily reach the low-to-mid 30s, and TravelChinaGuide’s August guide puts Chongqing’s typical high at **34°C**, with **3 August** specifically shown at **34.7°C** on its climate table.[2][9]

The main catalysts are straightforward weather drivers rather than scheduled events: cloud cover, monsoon rain bands, and the timing of any convective showers before the day’s peak heating. Chongqing’s August profile is described as “unbearably hot” and rainy, which matters because a morning or early-afternoon downpour can cap the high, while a dry, sunny interval can push the airport reading into a higher band.[2][17] For traders, the key is the intraday forecast around Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport rather than citywide averages, because the market settles on the *highest recorded temperature* there by the Wunderground history page.[1] With settlement ending at 12:00 UTC, the live weather path through the local afternoon remains the decisive dependency, and any forecast revisions that raise the chance of a clear, hot window would be the most obvious contrarian angle against the current near-zero price.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 3? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.