Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing the likelihood that Guangzhou's highest temperature on 21 August 2026 will fall within a specific range, measured at Baiyun International Airport Station and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The 0% implied probability suggests the crowd has already settled on a particular temperature bracket as the near-certain outcome, leaving no credence for alternative ranges.

Guangzhou's August climate is remarkably consistent. Historical data from the past two decades shows daily highs in late August clustering between 32–35°C, with extremes rarely breaching 36°C or dropping below 31°C. The city's position in the Pearl River Delta, combined with monsoon influence and urban heat effects, creates a narrow band of plausible outcomes. August 21 specifically sits in the latter half of the month when seasonal patterns are well-established; anomalous weather systems capable of producing significant departures from the mean are statistically uncommon at this point in the summer cycle.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early-to-mid August 2026, as any system tracking towards southern China could suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation. The China Meteorological Administration typically issues extended forecasts three to four weeks ahead; their mid-August bulletin will provide the first reliable signal of whether monsoon patterns or high-pressure systems will dominate. Sea surface temperatures in the South China Sea, which influence regional weather stability, warrant tracking through July. The 0% pricing suggests the consensus has already anchored to a specific range; any shift in seasonal forecasts or emerging tropical activity could create value in currently dismissed alternatives.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 21? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.