Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 29?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in Hong Kong on 29 May 2026, measured to one decimal place in degrees Celsius. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, indicating no consensus has formed ahead of the May 2026 settlement window.

Hong Kong's late May climate is consistently warm and humid, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 28°C and 32°C. The Observatory's records from recent May periods show that temperatures above 33°C occur occasionally but remain outliers; the long-term average for late May sits around 29–30°C. The 0% reading across all brackets suggests the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds, rather than reflecting genuine uncertainty about whether a temperature will be recorded. Comparable late-spring days in Hong Kong rarely exceed 34°C unless influenced by unusual weather systems, making extreme heat scenarios less probable than moderate-to-warm outcomes.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather pattern forecasts as May 2026 approaches, particularly tracking whether any tropical systems or heat domes develop in the weeks prior. The Hong Kong Observatory publishes monthly climate summaries and seasonal outlooks that could shift expectations if anomalous conditions are flagged. Resolution depends entirely on the Observatory's published "Daily Extract" data, which typically becomes available within days of the observation date. Early positioning may offer value once liquidity enters the market and temperature ranges are properly weighted against historical frequency distributions.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 29? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.