Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is effectively a bet on whether Kuala Lumpur International Airport gets hot enough on 3 August to clear the relevant temperature band, with the crowd currently pricing **0% YES**. That makes the listed favourite the *no-hit* side by a wide margin, while any YES exposure is a deep contrarian position that only pays if the day’s maximum lands in the market’s target range rather than merely producing a warm afternoon. [3][5][9]

Historical context points to a usual August high in the low 30s Celsius rather than anything extreme: current forecasts cluster around **32–34°C** for Kuala Lumpur, with one source showing 33°C and another 34°C for the day, alongside light rain or thunderstorm risk rather than a clean, dry heat spike. The present pricing therefore looks anchored to the consensus that the airport may stay below the range implied by the market’s YES outcome, but there is still some value in watching whether the forecast nudges up or whether afternoon sunshine pushes the day’s peak higher than the street expects. [2][3][5][9][12]

For traders, the main catalysts are the hourly temperature path, the timing of showers or storms, and any shift in local wind or humidity through the afternoon, because airport maxima are usually set in the warmest late-morning to mid-afternoon window. The key dependency is not a formal announcement but the live weather evolution itself: if the current cloudy, rain-affected setup breaks, the upside scenario for YES improves; if convection fires early, the day’s ceiling is more likely to be capped. Current live feeds already show warm conditions in Kuala Lumpur, with temperatures around 29–30°C and forecast highs near the low 30s Celsius, so the market’s value case is mainly a late-day weather surprise rather than the base case. [1][6][7][9][10][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 3? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.