Highest temperature in Moscow on May 29?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 29 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Moscow's Vnukovo International Airport will fall within one of several defined ranges. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either extreme uncertainty about the resolution mechanism or insufficient trader participation in this niche weather market. NOAA's automated station data at this Moscow facility provides the settlement source, with the metric conversion toggle available on their public interface.

Moscow's late May climate typically produces mild to warm conditions as the city transitions into early summer. Historical records show temperatures on 29 May ranging between 15°C and 25°C in most years, with occasional outliers reaching 27–28°C during warmer springs. The 0% implied probability reflects the market's infancy rather than any meteorological impossibility; comparable European capital weather markets at this granular level often show sparse initial liquidity before seasonal approaches. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on the day itself, creating a hard deadline that eliminates post-event trading.

Traders monitoring this market should track European weather forecasting models released in the weeks preceding late May 2026, particularly anomalies in the North Atlantic Oscillation and Siberian high-pressure systems that influence Moscow's spring temperatures. The Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology publishes seasonal outlooks that occasionally signal warmer or cooler patterns. Early May 2026 weather data will provide the most actionable signal; traders entering now face genuine uncertainty about which temperature bands represent fair value, making this a genuine discovery opportunity rather than a consensus play.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Moscow on May 29? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Who Will Win 2026 — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win 2026?

Zero. Who Will Win 2026 routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.