Highest temperature in Munich on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing the peak temperature at Munich Airport on 21 August 2026 at 0% probability for any given range, suggesting the crowd expects either extreme heat or a data recording issue. Munich's August climatology shows daily highs typically between 24–27°C, with extremes reaching 34–36°C during heat waves. The 0% implied probability across all ranges is unusual and likely reflects either a technical glitch in market setup or traders awaiting clarity on which temperature bands are actually available for settlement.

Historical August records for Munich show that temperatures exceeding 30°C occur roughly once every three years during the month, whilst readings above 35°C are rare but not unprecedented—the city recorded 37.3°C in June 2022 during an exceptional European heat event. The settlement mechanism's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures introduces a minor data-source dependency; discrepancies between these tables are uncommon but have occurred during sensor maintenance or calibration periods.

Traders should monitor European summer weather patterns as August 2026 approaches, particularly Atlantic blocking systems that drive continental heat waves into Central Europe. The German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) publishes seasonal outlooks in June that could shift expectations. Until the market's temperature ranges are clarified and the 0% floor is resolved, meaningful probability assessment remains constrained; once active ranges appear, typical August conditions suggest mid-range outcomes (25–28°C) should command the highest probability mass.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Munich on August 21? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.