Highest temperature in NYC on May 30?

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Market context

LaGuardia Airport's weather station will record the highest temperature across all daylight and evening hours on 30 May 2026. The market currently shows zero probability assigned to any outcome, suggesting either extreme uncertainty or insufficient trader participation at this early stage. May temperatures in New York City typically range between 70–80°F, though heat waves can push readings into the low 90s. Historical data from the National Weather Service indicates that late May temperatures at LaGuardia average around 75°F, with the 90th percentile reaching approximately 85°F. Extreme outliers—temperatures exceeding 95°F in late May—occur roughly once per decade in the region, making such outcomes statistically rare but not unprecedented.

The settlement window closes on 30 May 2026 at midday UTC, creating a hard deadline for resolution against Wunderground's historical records. Traders should monitor seasonal climate patterns emerging through spring 2026, particularly any signals of an early heat dome or anomalous warming trend across the Northeast. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's seasonal outlooks, typically released monthly, will provide the most reliable guidance on whether May 2026 is tracking toward above-normal or below-normal temperatures. Current atmospheric oscillations—including Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the North Atlantic Oscillation—influence late-spring weather patterns, though their state eighteen months ahead remains speculative. The zero probability reading suggests the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity or conviction from weather-focused traders.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win 2026 is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win 2026?

Zero. Who Will Win 2026 routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.