Highest temperature in Paris on May 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The settlement hinges on the maximum temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 26 May 2026, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to any specific outcome. This suggests either extreme uncertainty about the temperature range bins themselves or a technical issue with how the market has been structured, since historical May weather in Paris is well-documented and predictable within reasonable bounds.

Paris typically records highs between 18–24°C in late May, with the long-term average around 20°C. The city's record high for May stands at 32.9°C, set in 1949, though temperatures above 28°C remain uncommon for this date. The 0% implied probability across all ranges indicates the crowd has not yet engaged substantively with the market, leaving room for genuine forecasting value once traders begin pricing in seasonal norms and any emerging weather patterns. May in Paris sits between spring and early summer, with variability driven primarily by Atlantic weather systems and occasional continental air masses pushing northward from the Mediterranean.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Météo-France will issue their operational forecasts in the week preceding 26 May, providing the most actionable signal for traders. Spring weather patterns across western Europe typically stabilise by late May, though anomalous heat events remain possible if high-pressure systems establish over the continent. Current climate conditions and any developing Atlantic blocking patterns will be the primary catalysts shaping temperature outcomes, with forecasts becoming increasingly reliable from mid-May onwards.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on May 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Who Will Win 2026 — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win 2026 is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win 2026 triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.