Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 3 August, and the market is effectively asking whether the day’s peak lands in the upper bands or stays below the hotter consensus. With the crowd at **0% YES**, the market is pricing the *underdog* side very aggressively; the contrarian angle is that a single afternoon spike can still matter in Seoul’s west-coast corridor, even if the first-cut forecast sits a few degrees lower than the national heat headline.[2][9]

Historically, this sort of summer temperature market tends to track whether local cloud cover, sea breeze and timing of peak insolation suppress the airport reading versus the broader capital-area narrative. The consensus from recent forecasts is for Incheon around **32–34°C** and Seoul around **33–37°C**, with the Korea Meteorological Administration and local outlets describing a nationwide heatwave but not an extreme outlier for Incheon itself.[2][9] That leaves the favourite as the lower temperature ranges, while anything above the mid-30s looks like the speculative value spot; traders backing the upside are leaning on the possibility of stronger easterly flow and clear skies than the base case suggests.[1][2]

Catalysts to watch are the morning and early-afternoon updates from the KMA and airport-area observations, because the settled number will depend on the day’s actual maximum rather than the headline forecast. SBS reports easterly winds shifting across the capital area, which can lift western locations, but the same report also notes only **37°C** for Seoul and no sign of organised heavy rain over the capital.[1] By contrast, forecast services already point to a clear, hot day with limited precipitation risk, so the main driver is whether Incheon’s marine influence caps the high or whether the heatwave broadens enough to pull the airport station into the upper end of the range.[2][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 3? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.