Highest temperature in Seoul on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event centres on whether Incheon International Airport will record a peak temperature in a specific range on 5 July 2026, with the crowd currently assigning zero per cent probability to the “YES” outcome. Historically, early July in Seoul rarely breaches the upper thresholds implied by the market, though the region has seen a dramatic warming trend. July 2025 was the second-hottest July on record since 1973, with a nationwide average of 27.1°C, while Seoul itself hit 37.7°C on the same date in 2025, the highest early-July reading in 117 years[1][6]. The all-time national heat record of 41.0°C was set in Hongcheon, not Seoul, suggesting that while extreme heat is possible, the airport station may not reach the highest bracket[2].

For traders, the key catalyst is the North Pacific high-pressure system, which drives hot, humid summer weather capable of pushing temperatures toward 35°C or higher[8]. A trader should monitor daily forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration for any sudden shifts in pressure patterns or cloud cover that could suppress peak temperatures. Recent reports confirm South Korea endured record-breaking summer heat in August 2025, with averages 2.9°C above the 1991–2020 baseline, indicating a persistent trend of elevated temperatures[4]. The consensus sits firmly on the lower end of the range, but value may exist if the high-pressure system intensifies unexpectedly, creating a contrarian angle against the zero-per cent implied probability.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.