Highest temperature in Seoul on May 28?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The highest temperature at Incheon International Airport on 28 May 2026 will determine which range this market resolves to, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to any outcome—an unusual state that suggests either extreme confidence in a particular band or genuine uncertainty about how to price late-spring Seoul weather.

Seoul's late May climate sits at a transitional point between spring and early summer, with historical records showing daily highs typically between 24°C and 28°C during this period. The 0% implied probability across all ranges indicates the market has not yet attracted substantive trading activity or consensus formation. Comparable prediction markets on East Asian temperatures in similar seasons show clustering around the 25–27°C bands, reflecting the region's consistent late-spring patterns. The absence of any probability mass suggests traders are waiting for either clearer seasonal forecasts or additional market liquidity before committing positions.

South Korea's meteorological forecasts become increasingly reliable within two weeks of the target date, meaning the most actionable catalyst will be the Korea Meteorological Administration's extended outlook released in mid-May 2026. Anomalous weather patterns—such as early monsoon activity or an unexpected cold front—could push temperatures outside the typical range, though such deviations remain statistically uncommon for this specific date and location. Until substantive trading emerges, the market's zero probability across all outcomes reflects an absence of price discovery rather than genuine forecasting consensus.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on May 28? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Who Will Win 2026 — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win 2026?

Zero. Who Will Win 2026 routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win 2026 triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.