Highest temperature in Seoul on May 29?

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Market context

The settlement hinges on the single highest temperature reading at Incheon International Airport on 29 May 2026, measured in Celsius. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about which temperature band will occur or have not yet engaged with this specific date. Seoul's late May weather typically sits in the warm range, with historical highs averaging 27–29°C during this period, though extremes can push toward 32°C on unusually hot days.

Historical May data from Incheon shows considerable year-to-year variation. The station has recorded highs ranging from 21°C to 33°C across different 29 May observations in recent decades, reflecting the transitional nature of late spring in South Korea before the onset of the monsoon season. This wide historical spread explains why the market lacks a clear consensus favourite—the outcome genuinely depends on whether 2026 brings a cooler, wetter pattern typical of early June or an anomalously warm spell pushed north from the subtropical Pacific.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration, typically issued in early May, which provide guidance on temperature and precipitation patterns for the coming month. Any significant heat dome formation over East Asia in late May would shift expectations upward, whilst the approach of the rainy season could suppress highs. Current atmospheric indices and the strength of the North Pacific high-pressure system in May will be the primary drivers of where the actual temperature settles on the day.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win 2026 is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win 2026?

Zero. Who Will Win 2026 routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.