Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 5 July 2026, the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station will record its peak temperature, a real-world event that determines the outcome of this prediction market. The crowd currently assigns a 0% probability to the “YES” outcome, implying near-total consensus that the temperature will fall outside the defined range, likely in the higher brackets. Historical data frames this probability sharply: Japan endured its hottest July in recorded history in 2024, with average temperatures 2.16°C above the 30-year norm, and in July 2025, the nation hit a record 41.2°C in Hyogo Prefecture[6][8]. Haneda’s July 2026 forecast already projects daily highs between 76°F and 91°F (24.4°C–32.8°C)[4], suggesting that temperatures below 21°C are highly improbable. The market frontrunner is 27°C at 54%, with 26°C at 44%, indicating traders expect mid-to-high summer heat, not cool anomalies[1].

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s weekly heat advisories and any sudden shifts in the Pacific high-pressure system, which drives Tokyo’s summer temperatures. Recent reports confirm Japan is bracing for more extreme heat following the record-breaking July 2025, with officials warning of prolonged high-temperature periods[7]. The settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 5 July 2026, so real-time Wunderground data for Haneda will be the definitive resolution source. Contrarian value may lie in the 21°C or below bracket, currently priced at 4.4% volume, as it represents a rare underdog scenario against the overwhelming consensus for 26–27°C[2]. However, given the historical trend of rising summer temperatures and Haneda’s forecast, betting against the heat appears to be the true value spot for those seeking contrarian exposure.

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Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 5? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.