Highest temperature in Beijing on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 21 August 2026 will be measured at Capital International Airport Station using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table as the authoritative source. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, capturing the full diurnal cycle for the day in question.

August represents peak summer in Beijing, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 29–34°C during this period. The 0% implied probability suggests the crowd expects the temperature to fall below the lowest threshold offered in the market's range structure. This consensus warrants scrutiny: Beijing's August climate is remarkably consistent, with extreme heat events occurring regularly enough that dismissing all higher temperature brackets entirely appears miscalibrated. Comparable years show that temperatures exceeding 35°C occur roughly once every two to three years in August, whilst readings above 32°C are routine. The current pricing reflects either an unusually conservative crowd or a market structure where the lowest bracket captures overwhelming volume.

Traders should monitor China's meteorological forecasts released in early August 2026, particularly any alerts from the China Meteorological Administration regarding heat waves or anomalous pressure systems. Seasonal patterns favour warmer outcomes: the East Asian summer monsoon typically peaks in mid-August, and any weakening of this system could allow continental high-pressure systems to dominate, driving temperatures toward the upper end of historical ranges. Real-time weather data from late July will provide the most reliable signal for August conditions.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.