Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 26?

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Market context

Chongqing on 26 June 2026 is entering the peak of its hot season, a period historically defined by sustained high temperatures well above 28°C. The crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific outcome suggests the market is either mispricing the event or treating the temperature range as a certainty rather than a variable. Historically, Chongqing’s June highs average 28.7°C, with daytime peaks frequently reaching 30–32°C, and the city has recorded maximums as high as 43°C in recent years. Comparable cases from mid-June, such as the 29°C peak on 16 June and the 31–32°C push on 21 June, indicate that temperatures in this range are not outliers but standard for this period. The consensus appears to be that the market is underestimating the likelihood of higher ranges, creating value spots for contrarian traders betting on 30°C or above.

The key catalyst for traders to watch is the subtropical high-pressure ridge currently pushing back over the Sichuan Basin, a weather pattern that has driven Chongqing’s peak temperatures toward 31–32°C in recent weeks. This ridge is expected to persist through 26 June, reinforcing the likelihood of elevated temperatures. A recent Reuters report from August 2025 noted that Chongqing residents sought shelter as heatwaves topped 40°C, underscoring the city’s vulnerability to extreme heat during this season. Traders should monitor Wunderground’s hourly updates for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, as real-time data will confirm whether the ridge maintains its intensity. With the settlement window ending at 12:00 UTC on 26 June, the market’s 0% probability may reflect a lack of confidence in the temperature range rather than a genuine belief in cooler conditions. Value likely sits in betting on the upper ranges, as the weather pattern supports sustained highs.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

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