Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s daytime high on 3 August is the underlying event, with settlement tied to the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport Station on that date. The market’s crowd-implied probability is 0% YES, which makes the current line look like a deep underdog for any specific temperature band and suggests the consensus is effectively priced away from the tails and towards the middle of the range.

That middle-range bias fits Shenzhen’s August climatology. Forecast and travel sources repeatedly describe August as hot and humid, with typical highs around 31–34°C and lows around 26–28°C, while the Polymarket page itself shows the crowd clustering around 28–31°C, led by 29°C at 31% and 28°C at 24%.[6][11][17][19][20] For a handicapper, that leaves the favourite in the broad 29–31°C zone, with value most likely sitting in whichever adjacent band trades too cheaply relative to the expected daily peak; contrarian interest tends to emerge if cloud cover or rain suppresses the afternoon climb, but the base rate still favours a warm result rather than an extreme cool one.[4][18]

The main catalysts are intraday weather changes rather than scheduled announcements. Traders should watch the hourly Shenzhen forecast, especially any shift in precipitation timing, cloud cover, or wind that could cap the daytime maximum, because the resolution source is a station reading from Wunderground and revisions can matter until the next day’s first datapoint is published.[6][7][8] At 6am UTC, the published forecasts still point to a hot day with a meaningful rain chance, so the market is likely to stay sensitive to late-morning convection and whether showers arrive before or after the peak heating window.[2][9][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 3? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.