Highest temperature in NYC on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, LaGuardia Airport in New York City will face a critical heat test, with the market currently assigning a 0% probability to the “YES” outcome for the highest temperature falling outside the expected range. Historical data frames this stark consensus: July 1 has rarely seen extremes beyond the 90s, with the average high hovering near 85°F and the record maximum at 107°F recorded on 3 July 1966[8]. Recent forecasts for July 2026 suggest daily highs between 81°F and 99°F, aligning closely with the crowd’s favourite of 92–93°F, which commands a 90% share[1][5]. The underdog, 94–95°F, sits at just 9%, reflecting a belief that temperatures will not breach the upper 90s despite the heat emergency declared for the city[7].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climatological reports and Wunderground’s real-time updates for LaGuardia, as these are the official resolution sources[4]. A key catalyst is the heat emergency announcement made on 30 June 2026, which signals dangerously high temperatures and could push the maximum toward 97°F (36°C) if conditions intensify[3][7]. While the consensus firmly backs 92–93°F, value may lie in the contrarian 94–95°F range if the heat emergency materialises more severely than forecast. The implied 0% probability on the “YES” outcome appears overly rigid, given the volatility of July heatwaves and the potential for a spike beyond 95°F under sustained pressure[1][3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.