Prediction Markets UK — Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket itself operates in a legal grey area in the UK. Prediction markets settled in cryptocurrency (USDC) are not straightforwardly classified as "gambling" under the Gambling Act 2005, which requires cash prizes to trigger regulation. No UK authority has taken enforcement action against Polymarket. However, Polymarket voluntarily geoblocks UK IP addresses. PolyGram mirrors Polymarket's CLOB liquidity and is accessible to UK users.

Polymarket geoblocks UK users as a precautionary compliance measure, not because the UK has explicitly banned it. The Gambling Commission has not issued guidance specifically covering USDC-settled prediction markets. PolyGram was built to give UK traders access to the same Polymarket CLOB order book without the IP restriction.

Using a VPN to circumvent Polymarket's geoblock violates Polymarket's Terms of Service and could result in your account being restricted. A better option is PolyGram, which legally mirrors Polymarket's CLOB liquidity and is fully accessible to UK users without a VPN.

Polymarket and PolyGram use USDC (USD Coin), a US-dollar-pegged stablecoin on the Polygon blockchain. Each contract share is worth between $0.00 and $1.00 USDC, with the final value settling at $1.00 (YES wins) or $0.00 (NO wins). UK users can buy USDC on Coinbase UK, Kraken UK, or any FCA-registered crypto exchange.

No. PolyGram is not regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Prediction markets are a novel category and no major prediction market platform — including Polymarket or Kalshi — holds FCA authorisation. Always trade only what you can afford to lose.

Purchase USDC on an FCA-registered exchange (Coinbase UK and Kraken UK are the most popular). Send USDC on the Polygon network to your PolyGram deposit address. Deposits are credited after 12 confirmations, typically within 2–3 minutes. Minimum deposit is $10 USDC.

Yes. PolyGram mirrors all Polymarket election markets, including UK general election, Labour/Tory seat counts, next Prime Minister, and approval rating markets. Markets are settled based on official results, with no counterparty risk as settlement occurs on-chain via smart contracts.

PolyGram holds user USDC in segregated Polygon wallets derived from a BIP-44 HD wallet. Funds are not commingled. The platform does not hold private keys in plaintext — all keys are AES-256-GCM encrypted at rest. That said, no crypto platform is risk-free: smart contract bugs, exchange hacks, and regulatory action are real risks.

HMRC has not issued specific guidance on prediction market profits. Most tax practitioners treat them similarly to cryptocurrency trading gains — subject to Capital Gains Tax if the total annual gain exceeds the CGT annual exemption (£3,000 for 2026/26). If trading is frequent and systematic, HMRC may treat it as trading income subject to Income Tax. Always consult a qualified UK tax adviser.

Polymarket is a decentralised prediction market on Polygon, settled in USDC, with no central operator holding funds. Kalshi is a US CFTC-regulated exchange that holds USD fiat. Polymarket is not available to UK or US users (geoblocked). Kalshi is not available to UK users (US-only). PolyGram mirrors Polymarket's CLOB and is accessible to UK users.

Academic research (Snowberg, Wolfers, Zitzewitz; Tetlock's Superforecasting studies) consistently shows prediction markets outperform traditional polls and expert forecasts at forecasting political and economic events. Markets aggregate dispersed information via the profit motive — traders who are wrong lose money, traders who are right gain, producing well-calibrated aggregate probabilities.

PolyGram mirrors all active Polymarket CLOB markets, including: US and UK politics, sports outcomes (football, cricket, F1), crypto prices (BTC, ETH above/below targets), macroeconomics (Fed rate decisions, UK inflation), and entertainment (Oscars, Bafta). New markets are added as they appear on Polymarket's CLOB.